W56- Coming to you from California

August 23, 2011 in Guest Blogger, World 056 News, World News, Worlds 51-60 News

Thanks to an annonymous friend, I’d like to bring you a very well written and interesting look at the current W56 situation…

(Please be aware I’m posting this a few days after receiving it, so information may be late or outdated.)

I hope you enjoy this interesting read while I remain on vacation in California. I’ll give you some updates on what I’ve been up to when I get back, and then I think you’ll understand the lack of blogs! Don’t wory though, I’ll be back and at ‘em shortly!

Annonymous: It is truly an interesting time to write a blog. Admittedly, this is my first time writing for the tribalwars blog, so please don’t criticize me too hard on this, however it has been a great experience. This is because the world is at an interesting point in its history. There are two very important wars going on, both of which are nearly large enough to be called world wars. Lets call them the East war and the West war for now. I know most of you know this all already, but I am just recording it for posterity:The East war consists of Old and RW vs. MoM,W2V, WET and Dork.

Although some of these tribes (for example RW and W2V) are not directly attacking each other, they are all involved on one vague side or another.
The same can be said of the West war consisting of Haul! and CODE vs. OHYEAH, FARMA, S-D, +B+, RUST and Wall as well as many smaller tribes warring CODE in the south.

These two wars are connected by a thin line by way of an Old alliance with Code and a MoM alliance with Haul!. If these alliances are tested, it could become a world war. Anyways, back ontopic. I wrote this because I heard on the 20th page of the blog thread, before it was closed, that you could. Below are the fruits of my labour. Will be starting it off with a bit of analysis on the top 10 and then onto a bit about the major wars happening and lastly a bit on the players. I would have liked to have an interview too. Unfortunately I didn’t have enough time or effort.

Top 10 Analysis:

1 Old

Old, having gained top a month ago, has secured itself as the far and away biggest tribe in the world. It is around 47% bigger than the second ranked tribe MoM. The reason Old is so large is for two reasons. Firstly, Old have the highest average points per player in the top 20. This is mostly due to having seven of the world’s top 20 players, including the entire top three. Secondly, they have a very large member count (75 members), the largest in the top 10 tying with +B+ and the third largest in the top 20. All of this makes Old a considerable force in this world and a nasty opponent to go up against, especially in a one vs. one match.

Looking at Old’s growth, other than today, in which one member left Old, the tribe is constantly growing quickly and has the highest number of conquers in the world for the last week at 734. Then again though, it has the highest amount of losses at 510, though how many of those are internals remains to be seen. Interestingly, a point that has been posted on the forums about Old and their two major wars with MoM and W2V, is that they expend a lot of ODA to gain villages. Old claims that this is due to catapult operations, whilst others argue otherwise, however one cannot deny that Old’s ODA is rising faster than any other tribe in the top 20. MoM, who used to be the far and away ODA leader, is soon to be passed by Old, hardly a month after Old passed its points total.

Despite Old being the undisputed top tribe, because I don’t think anyone is going to budge Old for a while, I do have a few concerns regarding them. The main concern being that not everyone in Old is properly participating in the war. There are only 34 people conquering against MoM, despite that war going on for nearly a month and it is something that Old could consider looking at changing if they want to increase their chances of winning what looks like a hard war. Overall though, I severely doubt that Old are going anywhere. Despite a short-term loss in their wars against MoM and W2V, they are still winning overall due to some impressive operations against MoM members early on. If they could replicate those effects, I think Old could start winning this war again.

2 MoM

MoM is the tribe that a lot of forum goers think deserve to be top. They undoubtedly have more war experience than any of the tribes surrounding it. Despite a shaky start to both the Old war and the RW war, MoM is winning both on the short term statistics. More significantly, they seem to have damaged RW’s growth significantly, seeing them drop out of the top 5 after MoM recruited from them. This recruitment may be the beginning of the end of the RW war.

 (Sorry! We’ll look at this new development more in a later issue…)

The point graph certainly seems to think so. This will allow MoM to focus more on Old, who don’t seem to have the same problems as RW, growing perfectly fine despite having the 2nd, 6th and the 17th ranked tribe on them and have shown themselves to be capable of causing MoM serious damage as shown in the myvampire and saeldar operations early on in the war.

MoM seems to be growing well, not quite as fast as Old, however they aren’t losing as many villages either. One of their top players, sheepshaun left MoM to join Old to much anger on the public forums. However, they have replaced his bulk with the recruitment of Camay from RW, which is slightly ironic due to their chastising of Sheepshaun betraying MoM. Interestingly, Sheepshaun is not doing terribly (considering his position) against MoM. Although he is losing 22-10, he is putting up a fight with a sharp increase of ODD to nearly 5 million, impressive due to the closeness between him and MoM and the shortness of the fight (he left but a few days ago). It will be interesting to see if Sheepshaun can hold up against the pressure or if he is the internaller that MoM says he is.

Nevertheless, MoM is still a tribe to look out for. The world has expected great things from MoM since the start of the world and MoM has not failed to deliver. However, this game is all about consistency and one mistake or bad turn can ruin a tribe in days as has happened to S-D. It will be interesting if MoM repeats their previous successes by pulling out in the end. The public can only wait, watch the flame wars go on and hope for another spark of brilliance.

3 Haul!

After a brief stint in second, Haul is now back in third. However, this is not to say that Haul! is going downward (on the contrary, MoM has just recruited). Until very recently, Haul! were losing their wars, but thanks to the entrance of Code into the war, Haul! have been greatly relieved on their S-D front and have started recovering in the war statistics. I managed to find some statistics against S-D from around 2 weeks ago. Two weeks ago, Haul! were losing 12-47, now they are winning 32-6. This is great news for Haul!, who will be happy to see one of their enemies crumbling. In the long term, this will allow Haul! to relocate their troops to another front.

Growth wise, Haul!’s points has been up and down for the last month, mainly due to players leaving and joining. The most significant of those leaves was a group of around 8 or so players who left to various tribes on the 13th of August. Chief among the tribes that these players left to were a FARMA support tribe and Sand. Haul! have managed to replace those members though with players from S-D, who look to be disappearing from the war. However, I am of belief that this creates a long term problem in terms of a worsening of relations with Code. If this isn’t sorted out, it could cause Haul! a bunch of long term problems after S-D collapse and Haul! and Code share a border.

However, the main problems for Haul! are OHYEAH and FARMA, who are still winning against Haul! comfortably, despite Code’s entrance to help end S-D. The next thing that Haul! will want to do is to push against these tribes and the ability of Haul! to do so, will help determine how this war is going to go. However, saying that, Haul! now do have the advantage, its just a case of pressing it home.

4 CODE

CODE were a generally unknown entity until recently. They were voted the least aggressive tribe tied with Just- (no, that isn’t a good thing) in the comprehensive survey. They were known for being recruited by Old, having some big internal issues and generally not doing much on the world stage. Fortunately, they have decided to war and have done so in style. Less than two weeks ago, they embarked on a journey to war S-D. Two weeks later, they have arrived and the leader of S-D has quit and the tribe has started falling apart.

With 571 villages nobled in the last 7 days, CODE are conquering more than every tribe bar Old and are growing at a fast pace. They have S-D to expand into, so a lot of future growth. One could say that if CODE has truly got their internal issues sorted out, they are on a good track. Their only other problem has to be their relations with Old, which seemed to have soured in the last few weeks.

I expect some players of Old think that CODE is a tribe that they cannot rely on, and that is not a very good position to be in, especially if you are allies with Old. This has caused a lot of anger, which has come to light in the public forums, casting doubt on the relationship between Old and CODE. There also seems to be problems with Old recruiting Code members a while back, especially northstorm, who has chosen not to return to Code and stay in Old. This is likely to cause some tension. Overall though, I think Code are on the right track as of present and have to look a little towards the future, especially their future expansion (they have a choice to war MoM) and how they view their alliance with Old. It will be this latter factor as well as relations with Haul! that will determine CODE’s future moves.

 
5 OHYEAHOHYEAH is a new tribe to ascend to the top 5, mostly due to the drop in RW. I saw something interesting when looking through their last 20 conquers. They have a particularly impressive timed operation on SonGouku,
something that is rarely seen in this world, with 5 conquers in a second and 18 in an hour. Isnt that a world record?

Beyond that though, OHYEAH seem to be doing very well in their war against Haul!, despite this slight but amusing distraction. However, this is because Haul! aren’t focusing on OHYEAH at all. To be fair, OHYEAH aren’t focusing on Haul! that much either. Focusing on Haul! might be a good idea due to their general size and the fact that they are just finishing off S-D and the likelihood is, that OHYEAH will be next.

If I had any other criticism to post, it would be that OHYEAH seem to have a propensity to noble barbarian villages of very small size, less than 100 points small. They are hard to build up…actually just a waste of time to build up. Let the noobs build them up and then noble them, that’s how it works. Other than that, it will be interesting how OHYEAH progress in the future. Unfortunately, they are a bit of a gap in my knowledge of this world and it would be good to know a bit more about them too.

6 W2V

Here is a tribe that I do know a bit about. They have some highly profile wars against Old and a past one against !?! and have made a name for themselves. Their entrance into the Old-MoM war was similar to CODEs entrance into the Haul!-S-D war in that it helped one side (in this case MoM) gain an advantage in the statistcs. Unfortunately, W2V is not strong enough to bring down Old like CODE brought down S-D, so expect a long drawn war, even though W2V are winning in the statistics.

One of the things most impressive about W2V is that they are using their nukes very effectively, as has been shown by ODA to village gain stats posted on the public forums, which has made it obvious that W2V is being very careful when nobling Old villages. Another thing is that Old does not seem to want to cap much against W2V, at least in the short run, this has got them to be losing by over 75 villages, a gap which is increasing all the time. However even these losses seem to hardly dent Old’s seemingly perpetual strong growth.

This suggests that it is going to be a long war. However, W2V are starting well. We will see how they hold up in the long run. One of the things that is in their favour, is they are only fighting Old and therefore can concentrate on them a lot more than MoM can, or Old can concentrate back on it. If they can use this keep the pressure on Old, it will make life for Old players hard.

7 RW

It has been claimed by MoM PnP posters that RW is as good as dead. With a 7 million point drop in the last few days as well as MoM recruiting their biggest player (camay), it would seem things are bad for RW. That does not mean to say it is over. RW are still fighting back, have got 35 against MoM in the last week and 10 in the last 48 hours. However, RW are still losing in the last week against MoM.

Personally, although I don’t really know who leads RW, I think the leader has a tremendous task ahead of him should he want to keep RW in the shape they are in. RW have dropped from rank 5 to rank 7. Furthermore, lots of players have been leaving with more to probably follow. Lastly, RW were winning the MoM war, they aren’t now. RW will have to put extra effort into change that. Ultimately, what was supposed to be a relief to RW against MoM (Old joining in the war), has turned out to be bad. This is because MoM has performed well under pressure and upped its game against RW. If it continues, RW will undoubtedly fade, leaving Old to fight MoM, W2V and other tribes on its own.

8 FARMA

FARMA, best known for mohua and his fight and eventual victory against MoM (I think MoM just gave up, though correct if I am wrong), among other things that I cant really remember at this point. FARMA are warring against Haul! and doing well. They should be really able to take advantage of their position surrounding a kinda isolated Haul! cluster in the north to take even more villages, which I think they will do in the next week.
It is unlikely they will have much problem from Haul! in the near future, they are safe due to a lack of beneficial border for haul! to attack with. It is interesting that FARMA has taken a few of Haul!’s players in the north to help them, this will likely be a morale blow to Haul! in the long term. Overall, there isn’t much to say, they are growing well and I don’t see anything much stopping them in the near future as long as they don’t do something stupid.

9 S-D

S-D had a leader I actually liked the most out of the top 10 excluding my own tribe (not top 20). I honestly thought they would do very well as they were winning against Haul!. How wrong I was. It just goes to show that a tribe’s situation can change in a fraction of time. I cant really say much more. They will drop out of the top 20 and the best will be recruited by Haul!/Code/Ohyeah. The rest will be rimmed.

10 +B+

+B+ are a rim tribe, originally a family tribe, who are one of the tribes warring Haul! There are two big losers from the western war (excluding the mini rim tribes fighting Code). The first is the tribe above (S-D), the second is this tribe. +B+ should really be doing well against Haul!, seeing the odds stacked against Haul! (until recently of course) but aren’t. This is probably because +B+ aren’t that good of a tribe in terms of ability and organization.
And its showing, +B+ are losing by 40 villages in the weekly statistics. However, unlike the tribe above, +B+ have the opportunity to turn this around from a Haul! expansion war into a real fight. All they have to do is attack Haul! back. When they do that, then maybe they will get a better opinion.

Now that is all done, I thought we would have a little look at the two major wars going on right now. I will start with the Eastern one because it contains the biggest tribes and is argued about a lot more on the forums.

 
Here are the current war statistics since Old declared on MoM (this just seems a suitable place to start the statistics off from):Side 1:
Tribes: Old, RW
Side 2:
Tribes: MoM, W2V, WET, Dork

Timeframe: 24/07/2011 00:00:00 to 19/08/2011 09:34:56

Total conquers against opposite side:

Side 1: 862
Side 2: 756
Difference: 106

Overall, Old and RW are winning. This is quickly changing due to the advent of W2V into the war as well as MoM’s recovery in the statistics. Heres the same statistics from last week:

Side 1:
Tribes: Old, RW
Side 2:
Tribes: MoM, W2V, WET, Dork

Timeframe: Last week

Total conquers against opposite side:

Side 1: 230
Side 2: 384
Difference: 154

What this really shows is that this war is full of twists. A war that started with Old and RW winning easily has changed to show Old losing in the short term and RW struggling against MoM. However, I do not think this war is close to finishing, despite the bad look of the short term statistics for Old and RW. This is partially because such advantages have been achieved before (take the Old vs MoM statistics earlier in the war for example) and more importantly been recovered from.

RW may drop out, depending on the extent of the damage internally, however it will probably take a lot to break Old, even with 4 tribes on it. This will ultimately create a war of attrition unless something major changes in the next few days. As with all wars of attrition, the success of operations and the breaking of players will be key to victory. So far, MoM and W2V seem to be doing well, putting big pressure on LIL SPASM, frijolez and link in a box, who aren’t responding well to it. Old have shown they can do it too, having taken myvampires and Saeldar out.

Ultimately, this war keeps getting more and more interesting. I think it is a little too early to call a winner. I think even if RW does fall as some people say it will, Old still has a reasonable chance of beating the 4 tribes against it on its own. This will really depend on Old’s ability to use its nukes and defence well as well as doing some well placed operations on the enemy.

The western war (the other one) is just as big as the Eastern war, containing top tribes on both sides. First blood seems to have been struck by Haul/Code against S-D, but it is anyone’s game. Lets see the stats (I am not going to put in the Code rim gangbang as it is kinda separate from the Haul! gangbang (the main war):

Side 1:
Tribes: CODE, Haul!
Side 2:
Tribes: S-D, FARMA, OHYEAH, +B+

Timeframe: Forever

Total conquers against opposite side:

Side 1: 703
Side 2: 624
Difference: 79

Yet again, very close, with Haul! and Code just about winning. +B+ and S-D are losing in their stats 151 and 193 respectively, which is the main reason it is in Haul!/Code’s favour. If it was just FARMA and OHYEAH at war with Haul!, then haul! would be losing by 255 villages. This is where a lot of the pressure against Haul! originates, as well as from S-D who was winning until Code stepped in.

With S-D retiring from the battlefield, expect Haul! to focus a lot more on OHYEAH. I think the short term future of the war will be determined by how well OHYEAH does against Haul! Other than that, I expect FARMA to continue to do well and +B+ to continue losing villages and more of S-D to be recruited by Code and Haul! over the next week or two.

Also we have to look at how those rim tribes are doing against code. I am sorry, I cant keep track of every single irrelevant rim tribe, so it might be the wrong stats:

Side 1:
Tribes: CODE
Side 2:
Tribes: .:::., Wall, R I M, RIM-2, ~R~, RUST

Timeframe: Forever

Total conquers against opposite side:

Side 1: 419
Side 2: 80
Difference: 339

Two of the tribes I was meant to add into my stats have disbanded. That really says it all to me. The coalition against Code, whilst looked promising originally, did not have the manpower or the co-ordination to face up against the southern giant. I think Code will continue to get more and more villages from these tribes and ultimately make more of them disband.

Anyways, in conclusion, its looking to be an interesting world and I am really happy just to blog a little bit of it. Thank you for reading this block of text and if you have any questions whatsoever, just ask AoL and he can get them answered.

 

Once again, a huge thank you to the annonymous blog donor! A lot of work is put into TW Blogs and it takes writing one to really understand the time and, more than that, effort that we donate to you all.

Thats it for this issue, signing off from California, where it never rains and u6 has a life! (weird isn’t it!)

 

AoL